Oscar Prediction Scorecard: 2016

"We will make these puny gold men shiny and chrome!"

On Saturday, I published my predictions for the 88th Academy Awards, predicting not only who would win, but how badly I would be wrong about who would win. It's time to pay the piper, and it turns out that I was slightly off on both counts. I guessed more correctly than I expected, while also being wildly incorrect on some that I assumed would be sure things. I can take some solace in the knowledge that some of the ones I misjudged were also misjudged by basically everyone else in the entire world.

Before we get to the business of the real predictions, let's see how I did with my predictions for the ceremony itself.

• It will run long by between 30 minutes and two days.
• This was the very definition of low hanging fruit. I don't think any bookie in the world would have given me odds on this one.
• Chris Rock will be a great but underused host, and will spend much of the broadcast fighting against the inherent unwieldiness of a bloated awards show.
• He was not underused - far from it, he was all over the place - and he found every opportunity to take jabs at both Hollywood for its lack of diversity and the people complaining about the lack of diversity. He handled a difficult situation with aplomb, and only struck a few false notes.
• Related: there will be lots of jokes about the lack of diversity which will be met with uncomfortable silence.
• That's a-bingo, as Hans Landa once so memorably said.
• If Quentin Tarantino gets up to speak at any point, that will be a good time to go and grab a drink, make a sandwich, or read twelve chapters of War and Peace.
• Thankfully Ennio Morricone attended the ceremony, so we were spared another dose of Drunk Uncle Quentin airing his grievances.
• There will be at least five montages, two of which will be completely inessential and will leave the audience wondering why they couldn't cut them and include performances of the two nominees for Original Song which were left out due to "time constraints".
• Very low on montages this year, and the ones that were included were appropriate and, in  the case of the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing categories, genuinely innovative in how they conveyed the impact of the work on screen. Someone at the Academy had a good idea!
• The In Memoriam segment will lead to worldwide exclamations of "oh, right, he/she died this year" and will probably include slightly more of David Bowie's work than might be expected given how limited his filmography was.
• Finally, Zoolander gets its due at the Oscars!
• On a more serious note, it was great (and totally unexpected) to see Holly Woodlawn, the transgender actress and Andy Warhol favourite who was immortalised by Lou Reed in "Walk on the Wild Side", included in an Oscars In Memoriam.
• On an equally serious note, I was surprised to see Douglas Slocombe and Daniel Gerson included considering that they both passed away within the last month. Back in 2008, Brad Renfro was infamously left off the In Memoriam despite dying more than a month before the ceremony. I guess the rules have changed to make more sense, but it seems like that level of compassion should not have had to be added into the mix at such a late stage. People have been dying for much longer than the Oscars has been around.

One final thought on the ceremony itself: Chris Rock was a great, fearless host who was not cowed by the #OscarsSoWhite controversy. Instead, he tackled it head-on and repeatedly, in a way that probably no other host could have. If it was Neil Patrick Harris, say, there would probably have been a few jokes at the beginning, then the show would have moved on. Instead, Rock kept revisiting the subject of the Oscars' (and, by extension, Hollywood's) diversity problem as often and in as many ways as possible. It was a spectacular thing to see and I can't wait for him to host again in 2027.

Okay, I lied. One more point. How amazing was it that the Academy Awards, the stuffiest of awards ceremonies, featured a sitting Vice President addressing endemic sexual violence, a direct callout to the Black Lives Matters movement, and multiple calls for action on climate change? It probably didn't help dispel the image people have of Hollywood as a land of Leftist extremists, but it was a hell of a sight to see.

Finally, and I'm sorry that I keep lying, but I am undeniably and understandably stoked that Fury Road won six Oscars, more than any other film nominated. Sure, they were in the technical departments, but it was still an unlikely triumph for an even more unlikely film.

Anyway, here's how the night played out for me, predictions-wise, complete with assorted thoughts on how each category shook out.

Oscar Predictions 2016

After months of campaigning, coverage of lesser award shows, and countless interviews in which certain people talk about how fucking tough it is to shoot in the snow, the 88th Academy Awards are upon us, which means it's time for me to try and figure out what will win and what should win on Sunday night. My track record over the last couple of years has been pretty woeful, and I'm sure that this year will be no different. My only hope is that I will manage to get more than 50% of them right, which is a pretty low threshold but one I would be more than happy to meet.

Let's start off with a few predictions for the ceremony itself, which I feel a little more confident about pre-judging than I do the awards:

• It will run long by between 30 minutes and two days.
• Chris Rock will be a great but underused host, and will spend much of the broadcast fighting against the inherent unwieldiness of a bloated awards show.
• Related: there will be lots of jokes about the lack of diversity which will be met with uncomfortable silence.
• If Quentin Tarantino gets up to speak at any point, that will be a good time to go and grab a drink, make a sandwich, or read twelve chapters of War and Peace.
• There will be at least five montages, two of which will be completely inessential and will leave the audience wondering why they couldn't cut them and include performances of the two nominees for Original Song which were left out due to "time constraints".
• The In Memoriam segment will lead to worldwide exclamations of "oh, right, he/she died this year" and will probably include slightly more of David Bowie's work than might be expected given how limited his filmography was.

Below are my predictions for all 22 categories, so let's put on our suits and gowns, suffer through awkward musical numbers, and be blinded by how incandescently white everyone is!

You've Got To Accentuate The Positive: What's Good About the 2016 Oscar Nominations?

The Oscars aren't perfect. They aren't even good. They get things wrong all the time, ignoring greatness while rewarding mediocrity. They're not-so-secretly racist, as evidenced by this year's list of nominees, which features not a single non-white face among its TWENTY acting nominees for the second year in a row, despite a strong slate of performances by people of colour, as illustrated by this Decider column by Joe Reid. They're also not-so-secretly sexist, since even in these nominally more enlightened times, the work of female directors and writers is routinely ignored. (Admittedly that stems from a much bigger problem to do with how Hollywood repeatedly and completely fails to support female filmmakers, but just because the Oscars are a symptom of a problem doesn't mean they aren't also a problem on their own.) Even when they do get something right, they suck all the fun out of art by forcing people to compare wildly different films, pick sides over which is going to be their film this year, then presents them all in a leaden, slovenly ceremony that's usually only interesting for how it turns people who make their living entertaining into complete dullards. (Poor Neil Patrick Harris, you never stood a chance!)

Oscar Predictions 2014: The Technical Awards

At this point, it's pretty clear to me that the Oscars are largely meaningless to everyone except the nominees. For them, they represent the respect of their peers and greater opportunities for future work, be it in more acclaimed films or taking big paycheques for terrible superhero movies. For everyone else they're a chance to see who wore what best and to act as a reference guide for what were considered the best films of a given year, as chosen by a consensus of a relatively small, self-important group.

However, just because they don't really mean anything doesn't mean we can't have a bit of fun with them. As I have every year for the past few years, I have endeavoured to predict which films will win in each and every category. Some of these guesses are more educated than others, based either on how the awards season has played out so far, how the Academy has voted historically, or just based on what I think has the best chance of winning. It's a method that has worked fairly well in the past (apart from last year which, to use a technical term, was an absolute shit sandwich for me) and I'm hoping that it will prove itself again, or that I'll be so utterly incorrect that I can excoriate myself in my round-up on Monday.

As in previous years I've divided the various categories into the Technical Awards, which you can see below, and the Major Awards, which will run tomorrow. That's enough waffling; just because the ceremony will be super long doesn't mean this article should. Read on if you want to see what I, with my very patchy record on the subject, think will win on March 2nd.

Oscar Predictions: The Major Awards

Welcome back. I trust that you're all sitting comfortably and are as uproariously drunk as I am. How anyone could even contemplate making it through an awards ceremony sober is truly beyond me. Anyway, that's not important. What is important, is that we're now down to the final, precious few; the Oscars that most people care about! Without any further ado, let's get to it.

Oscar Predictions: The Major Awards

Welcome back. Having completely, thoroughly and no doubt inaccurately predicted the Technical Awards yesterday, today I'll round off the awards season by trying to decide which films will take home the Oscars that everyone actually cares about.

Oscar Prediction: The Technical Awards

It's become something of an annual tradition on this blog for me to try to predict the outcomes of the Academy Awards, a task which I find enjoyable despite the fact that it is incredibly futile. The Oscars are always frustrating because they so often reward the least interesting films by giving them the highest accolade. On the few occasions when they do recognise films that are genuinely interesting and provocative, it only seems to underline how conservative their tastes are the rest of the time, and any gains tend to be undone the following year by a return to normalcy. (From a prognosticatory vantage, those years are also incredibly annoying because you tend to assume the Oscars will always go for the safe bet, so a curveball like The Hurt Locker winning Best Picture throws everything completely out of whack.)

You've Got To Accentuate The Positive: What's Good About The 2012 Oscar Nominations?

The Oscar nominations were announced today - not that anyone would notice since it's not like everybody is talking about it all the damn time - and they confirmed once again that the Oscars are worthless. And I don't mean that in the sense that all human endeavour is worthless because one day we'll all die and no one will care about anything we did in life, and besides which the sun will one day implode and destroy the Earth, eradicating all trace of all humanity, making our irritation at Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close getting an Oscar nomination seem pretty trivial.

No, I mean that the Oscars are worthless because they fail to do the thing that they are meant to, which is recognise the exceptional films released in any given year. Sure, they sometimes get it right - the nomination for The Tree of Life, in particular, strikes me as unusually spot on for once - but for the most part they celebrate the merely okay, rather than the excellent.

Considering that last year saw some truly great films released, ones that were bold, daring and strange, it would be easy to write about the many, many great films that were snubbed in favour of mediocrity. However, since everyone is going to be doing that, I've decided to set cynicism aside and focus on the positive, looking at the little delights sprinkled amongst the dullness.

Oscar Predictions: The Major Awards

Welcome back to our annual Oscar Predictions special, a yearly exercise in beautiful futility. Having dealt with the Technical awards we will now talk about the ones that actually matter. (I'd just like to point out that, whilst I have been a bit disparaging towards the other awards, I do think that they are very important, but also realise that the Oscars that get peoples attention on posters and DVD covers are the ones I am about to discuss.)

Let's get to it.

Oscar Predictions: The Technical Awards

Welcome once again to A Mighty Fine Blog's Oscar prediction special! Much like the ceremony itself, it promises to be overlong, sporadically interesting and ultimately futile. On the plus side, there will be no interpretative dance sequences or mawkish tributes to people you've never heard of, and it won't take you five hours to read. (Though it may take me that fucking long to write.)

As with last year, I will split the predictions into two posts; one for the Technical Awards and one for the Main Awards. This is intended to make them easier to digest, so that you, the reader, won't have to read through one mammoth post, but it also means that if you don't care about Best Cinematography you can just look at the other post and see who is going to win the awards that most people care about.

So, unfunny introduction down, let's delve into the Academy Awards, 2011, and try to make some sense of them.

Film Review: The Fighter (2010)

Shit, I think that Mark did something that Christian found fucking distracting.

The Fighter stars Mark Wahlberg as a man who is a supporting character in his own life story. As a welterweight boxer, "Irish" Micky Ward's modest achievements have always been overshadowed by those of his older half-brother, Dickie Eklund (Christian Bale) and his claim to fame of having once knocked down Sugar Ray Leonard. Even though Dickie's glory days are behind him and he has descended into crack addiction, he is still the biggest thing that the town of Lowell, Massachusetts has ever seen, and as he trains Micky in the hopes that he will one day become something more than a stepping stone for other fighters, Dickie believes that his own comeback is just around the corner.

Film Review: Black Swan (2010)

Nina Sayers (Natalie Portman) is a dancer in a metropolitan ballet company. After years of dedicated performances in supporting roles, she is finally given her shot when she is cast as the lead in a new production of Swan Lake. Her director (Vincent Cassel) believes that, whilst she can embody the virginal innocence of the White Swan, she lacks the pulsing sexuality to convincingly play the evil Black Swan. Nina becomes obsessed with her dual roles, and as she starts to believe that a younger, less skilled but more sensual dancer (Mila Kunis) is out to steal the part from her, she descends into a paranoiac frenzy.

Film Review: True Grit (2010)

In Henry Hathaway's 1969 version of True Grit, Deputy Marshal Reuben "Rooster" J. Cogburn, played by John Wayne in an Oscar-winning performance, is introduced to the audience when he helps unload a group of prisoners from the back of wagon. When one stubborn prisoner refuses to move, Cogburn knocks him off, to the delight of the crowd that has gathered to watch. It's a fun scene that sets up Rooster as a prickly rogue, but one who gets the job done. In the new adaptation of Charles Portis' novel, Rooster (Jeff Bridges) is introduced when Mattie Ross (Haillee Steinfeld) finds him occupying an outhouse, having relocated there from a saloon, and he drunkenly informs Mattie that he will be in there some time.

Film Review:The King's Speech (2010)

The King's Speech, a film based on the life of King George VI (Colin Firth) and his efforts to overcome a stammer that made his frequent public speaking engagements nothing short of torture, is a film that perfectly illustrates how great chemistry can allow a film to transcend the trappings of its genre. In this instance, a film that could be a stuffy and staid period piece emerges as a fun, lively film about an unconventional friendship that just so happens to be set against the backdrop of earth-shattering events.

Film Review: How To Train Your Dragon (2010)

The over-riding narrative of DreamWorks Animation over the last decade has seen them cast as an infinite number of monkeys banging away at an infinite number of typewriters to Pixar's Shakespeare. Whilst DreamWorks has delivered a great deal more product than Pixar in the same amount of time - often releasing between two and three films a year to Pixar's one - and has ensured that they have maintained their position amongst the upper echelons of modern animation, they have rarely if ever released films that have met with the sort of deafening acclaim that Pixar's films have (rightfully) received. They seemed to turn a corner with the fun and inventive Kung Fu Panda in 2008, but if we are to return to the analogy of monkeys and typewriters, How To Train Your Dragon may very well be their Hamlet.

Film Review: Another Year (2010)

For much of its running time, Mike Leigh's latest feels less like a single narrative than a series of shorts connected by location and a shared cast of characters. He divides the film into sections determined by the seasons, and each season shapes the tone and emotions of the story. Starting in Spring, it shows a year in the lives of Tom and Gerri (Jim Broadbent and Ruth Sheen), a middle-aged, middle-class couple living in London. Tom and Gerri are happy, contented people, the sort of couple who have been together for decades and will probably see out their days in each others' loving embrace.

Oscar Predictions: The Major Awards

And we're back with the live telecast of Ed's Oscar Predictions. Hope the adverts weren't too loud and annoying.

Having looked through the Technical Awards with an occasionally surgical, but largely slapdash, precision, I will now be considering the Major categories as defined by me and, judging by the way in which the ceremony is conducted, by the Academy. I'm not saying the Technical Awards aren't important, just saying that if Best Editing was so important to the Academy it'd be the last award they hand out.

As with previous predictions, for each one I'll say who should win, who will win, and who the dark horse will be for each category, since that allows me to hedge my bets and come away from the whole thing claiming I was all clever and shit.


Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:

District 9 (2009): Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell
An Education (2009): Nick Hornby
In the Loop (2009): Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air (2009/I): Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

I must not have been the only one surprised and delighted by the nomination for In The Loop. Armando Iannucci, Oscar nominee just seems really strange to me. Pleasant surprise aside, I' can't quite bring myself to believe that it'll win, despite how bizarre and wonderful such an eventuality would be. It just seems too caustic and too British to win through. This category is actually quite interesting since, without a serious Best Picture contender behind any of them (Precious, maybe, but District 9? Can't see it happening) the field is wide open. If I had to choose (and I kind of have to, given the nature of this enterprise) I'm going to plump for Up In The Air. It's attracted plenty of attention throughout awards season and Jason Reitman is already an Academy fave.

What Should Win: In The Loop

What Will Win: Up In The Air

Dark Horse: District 9


Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:

The Hurt Locker (2008): Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger (2009/I): Alessandro Camon, Oren Moverman
A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up (2009): Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy

This category is very tight this year, as four of the nominees are Best Pictures contenders and, since Avatar's cliched, cheesy and downright awful script was rightly ignored, there isn't the sweep factor that usually allows the Best Picture winner to take the screenplay prize along with it. First, the films that definitely won't win: The Coens', despite writing a brilliant film, won't win because A Serious Man is too odd and personal to appeal to a broad selection of voters; and The Messenger won't win because it's a film that almost no one had heard of or was discussing as an Oscar contender prior to the nominations. That leaves Up, Inglourious Basterds and The Hurt Locker. I'd love for Up to win it, if only so Thomas McCarthy could get an Oscar and use the clout to get more films like The Station Agent and The Visitor made, but Pixar have always been bridemaids, never brides when it comes to the Original Screenplay award (Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, and WALL-E were all nominated for the same award in previous years) and I can't see that trend ending with Up. So, Inglourious Basterds, or The Hurt Locker? I think that Inglourious Basterds will just pip it for having the showier, more loquacious script at the expense of The Hurt Locker's gripping and realistic writing, giving Quentin Tarantino his second Original Screenplay Oscar, after his win in 1995 for Pulp Fiction.

What Should Win: The Hurt Locker or Up

What Will Win: Inglourious Basterds

Dark Horse: A Serious Man


Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:

Penélope Cruz for Nine (2009)
Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart (2009)
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Even if Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendricks weren't splitting the Up In The Air vote, Mo'Nique's had this award sewn up for months now. Her performance as Mary, the abusive, hateful mother of Precious is truly astounding; she creates a compelling monster who completely dominates every scene she is in, but it's the final scene of the film, in which she breaks down and lays bare the years of abuse visited on her daughter and the reason why she let it happen, is spellbinding. Mo'Nique takes us into the mind of a truly horrible human being and shows us what twisted logic led her to think that letting her husband sexually abuse their daughter for years was not only acceptable, but that somehow it was all Precious' fault. It's a brilliant performance.

Who Should Win: Mo'Nique

Who Will Win: Mo'Nique

Dark Horse: At this point, the rest of the nominees.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:

Matt Damon for Invictus (2009)
Woody Harrelson for The Messenger (2009/I)
Christopher Plummer for The Last Station (2009)
Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones (2009)
Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

It's interesting that this year both Supporting Awards became foregone conclusions so early in the awards season, and that both will go to actors portraying villains. Unlike Mo'Nique, Christoph Waltz will be waltzing home with an Oscar for playing a villain who is, despite being a Jew-killing Nazi, actually quite charming. Hans Landa, the Jew Hunter, is a man who is very, very good at his job, and from the moment he enters a farm house and asks its owner for a glass of his delicious milk, the audience never takes their eyes from him. He completely dominates every scene he is in and maintains a delicate balancing act between being the embodiment of all that is evil in the world and being downright hilarious.

Who Should Win: Christoph Waltz

Who Will Win: Christoph Waltz

Dark Horse: Unless, during the ceremony, Brad Pitt takes Waltz out, I don't think anyone else is going to have a look in.


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:

Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)
Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)
Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)

Up until a few months ago, if you had presented me with this list, I'd have said Carrey Mulligan without a moments hesitation. Whilst the rest of the nominees have either seniority on their side (Streep, Mirren, Bullock), or are in films that have real muscle behind them in other categories (Sidibe) none of them display the same insouciant charm and brittle fragility that Mulligan did as a schoolgirl seduced by an older man. That's what I would have said a few months ago, then The Blind Side made $244 million off the back of Sandra Bullock's performance, and suddenly things weren't so clear cut. Though I still think that Mulligan's is the better performance, Sandra Bullock is going to take home the statuette on the night. The Academy loves a comeback, and an Oscar would be the perfect cap to a year in which Bullock appeared in the two biggest hits of her career (The Proposal and The Blind Side) and gained some of her best notices, too. Though, when they talk about her success on the night, I think they'll skim over All About Steve. There's definitely a sense that it's Bullock's turn, whereas everyone else has either won Oscars in the past, or are young and talented enough to get a second crack a few years down the road.

Who Should Win: Carrey Mulligan

Who Will Win: Sandra Bullock

Dark Horse: Gabourey Sidibe


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:

Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)
George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)
Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)
Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2008)

In any other year, Morgan Freeman's performance as Nelson Mandela, a role that he's always seemed just perfect for, or Colin Firth's subtle, achingly sad portrayal of a gay man brought to the brink of suicide by the death of his lover, would be a shoo-in, but there's been a real swell of support for Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart recently. It's not hard to see why, many people have compared his role to Mickey Rourke's role in The Wrestler last year, with his vulnerable, haggard old country star showcasing the sort of affable charm/hidden depths combination that Bridge's does so well. This is also the fifth time Bridges has been nominated, and there seems to be a sense that it's time he won to make up for the times he didn't. This is known as the Scorsese Factor. So, with all that in mind, I think it'll go to Jeff Bridges: Clooney and Freeman have already won in the past; Jeremy Renner, despite giving the best performance out of the lot, is still young and will have other chances; and they gave Sean Penn an Oscar for playing a gay man last year, so they don't have to acknowledge the existence of gay people for at least another decade. It's The Dude's turn.

Who Should Win: Jeremy Renner

Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges

Dark Horse: Colin Firth


Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker (2008)
James Cameron for Avatar (2009)
Lee Daniels for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)
Jason Reitman for Up in the Air (2009/I)
Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Now, some of you may have gleamed from the rest of this post that I strongly believe that Avatar will win Best Picture, and there's lots of reasons why it will win, some of which I'll list in a moment. Now, generally, Best Picture and Best Director are paired together; of the 80 films that have won Best Picture, 59 have also won Best Director. However, I don't think that this will be the case this year since, whilst Avatar will win Best Picture, Kathryn Bigelow will win Best Director. Given that Bigelow used to be married to James Cameron, director of Avatar, this could be seen as the highest profile divorce settlement of all time ("You take Best Director, I'll take Best Picture. You can have the china plates, I'll have the silverware."), but more importantly it just seems like the wheels of history have turned and brought us to a point where, finally, a woman will win Best Director. It's long overdue and I can't see the Academy missing out on this opportunity to right a wrong that has persisted for far, far too long.

Who Should Win: Kathryn Bigelow

Who Will Win: Kathyrn Bigelow

Dark Horse: Jason Reitman


Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): James Cameron, Jon Landau
The Blind Side (2009): Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson
District 9 (2009): Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham
An Education (2009): Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey
The Hurt Locker (2008): Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Nicolas Chartier, Greg Shapiro
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Lawrence Bender
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness
A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
Up (2009): Jonas Rivera
Up in the Air (2009/I): Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman

The decision to expand the list of nominees to ten this year, rather than five - in response to very vocal criticism of the Academy over the exclusion of The Dark Knight last year -has certainly turned up some interesting candidates (who, last summer, could have foreseen that Peter Jackson wouldn't be nominated for Best Picture for The Lovely Bones but for that weird South African science fiction film about giant prawns?) but the award won't go to interesting candidates like the aforementioned District 9, A Serious Man, or Up (the first animated film to be nominated for Best Picture since Beauty and the Beast in 1991, and only the second one ever) or Academy-pleasers like An Education, The Blind Side Up In The Air, but to Avatar.

The monumental success of Avatar makes it pretty much a certainty that it will win Best Picture because, frankly, the film industry needs it to win Best Picture. So much time, money and effort has been spent developing 3-D and telling audiences that 3-D is the future that Avatar seemed to hold the entire history of cinema on its shoulders prior to release. Now that it has been released and, to the shock of pretty much everyone, become the most successful film of all time - unadjusted for inflation, of course - it only seems fitting that they should reward it for, if not changing the course of cinema history, at least offering concrete proof that 3-D is viable. Whilst I maintain, as I have throughout these predictions and elsewhere on the blog, that Avatar is not the best film that was released last year (The Hurt Locker was, naturally) I can't help but feel that Avatar deserves it. Regardless of what I feel about the film, its success is staggering, and James Cameron has, in the face of all the pessimism and jeers of the world, made himself King of the World again. Or the king of his own, bioluminescent world.

What Should Win: The Hurt Locker

What Will Win: Avatar

Dark Horse: The rest of them, but Up In The Air probably has the best chance of causing an upset on the night.

Right, that's your lot. Take your gift bags and piss off.

Oscar Predictions: The Technical Awards

Has it really been a year since I last dusted off my (virtual) tux and sat down to ruminate on the year's Oscars in a vain - in both senses of the word - attempt to try to figure out who is going to win? It has? Oh, well, best get started then. I'm going to do things slightly differently this year by splitting the predictions into two posts: The Technical Awards and the Major Awards. This is mainly because the Technical Oscars are ones that I can write up very quickly, so I'll be able to write this one up sharpish and spend more time on the main ones, but also because, theoretically, two separate posts will be more easily digestible than one turgidly long one.

Let's begin.

Ed's Predictions:

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:

The Door (2008): Juanita Wilson, James Flynn
Istället för abrakadabra (2008): Patrik Eklund, Mathias Fjällström
Kavi (2009): Gregg Helvey
Miracle Fish (2009): Luke Doolan, Drew Bailey
The New Tenants (2009): Joachim Back, Tivi Magnusson

As with the last two years, I haven't seen any of these so will have to use a completely arbitrary system of judgement. This year, I'm plumping for Kavi, because Gregg Helvey was interviewed on an episode of Battleship Pretension a few months ago and he sounded like a nice, interesting guy, and the other nominees could all murder kittens for pleasure, as far as I know.


Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:

French Roast (2008): Fabrice Joubert
Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (2008): Nicky Phelan, Darragh O'Connell
La dama y la muerte (2009): Javier Recio Gracia
Logorama (2009): Nicolas Schmerkin
Wallace and Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death' (2008) (TV): Nick Park

Easy; Nick Park. Just look at his Oscar track record: nominated five times before, won four of those times, and only lost the fifth because he was nominated twice in the same year; he only lost because he was competing against himself.


Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province (2009) (TV): Jon Alpert, Matthew O'Neill
The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner (2009): Daniel Junge, Henry Ansbacher
The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (2009) (TV): Steven Bognar, Julia Reichert
Królik po berlinsku (2009): Bartosz Konopka, Anna Wydra
Music by Prudence (2010): Roger Ross Williams, Elinor Burkett

The Documentary categories are one of the few sections of the Oscars that is, year in year out, allowed to be overtly political. Whilst the main awards will occasionally hand out awards to politically aware and progressive films, they tend to ignore them in favour of glitzier fare. With this in mind, I think The Last Truck will win, since it seems to have a timeliness to it that the others lack.


Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:

Burma VJ: Reporter i et lukket land (2008): Anders Østergaard, Lise Lense-Møller
The Cove (2009): Louie Psihoyos, Fisher Stevens
Food, Inc. (2008): Robert Kenner, Elise Pearlstein
The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers (2009): Judith Ehrlich, Rick Goldsmith
Which Way Home (2009): Rebecca Cammisa

A decidedly strong bunch here, with much to recommend them; Burma VJ is one of the most vital and incendiary documentaries of the last few years; The Cove is one of the most acclaimed documentaries of the last few years; and Food Inc. has recently seen a surge of popularity after Oprah Winfrey profiled it, making the DVD the number one in America. I think that The Cove will ultimately win out, though, since, much like Man On Wire last year, it's built a strong swell of critical and popular support over the course of the year.


Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:

Ajami (2009)(Israel)
Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009)(Germany)
El secreto de sus ojos (2009)(Argentina)
Un prophète (2009)(France)
La teta asustada (2009)(Peru)

Gah! Two of the best films I've seen in the last year going head to head in a repeat of last year's Cannes film festival ! Even though I think Un prophète is a better film, I think that Das weisse Band will win out because it's had longer to make an impact and because Michael Haneke is one of those directors who has long been a critical darling but whose work has never been recognised by the Academy.


Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:

Coraline (2009): Henry Selick
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Wes Anderson
The Princess and the Frog (2009): John Musker, Ron Clements
The Secret of Kells (2009): Tomm Moore
Up (2009): Pete Docter

I think that Up's nomination in the Best Picture category - which I am ecstatic about, by the way - could hurt its chances here, since people may ignore it if they think that it is in with a shot of winning a 'proper' award, even if it almost certainly won't. However, the fact that it is the most successful of the nominees - as well as the most universally praised, though it's a stellar bunch - will see it win out.

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Joe Letteri, Stephen Rosenbaum, Richard Baneham, Andy Jones
District 9 (2009): Dan Kaufman, Peter Muyzers, Robert Habros, Matt Aitken
Star Trek (2009): Roger Guyett, Russell Earl, Paul Kavanagh, Burt Dalton

Even though District 9 and Star Trek are much, much better films that are more inventive and entertaining, Avatar will certainly win this because, as ambivalent as I am about the merits of the film in terms of storytelling, the effects are amazing.


Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Christopher Boyes, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle
The Hurt Locker (2008): Paul N.J. Ottosson
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Wylie Stateman
Star Trek (2009): Mark P. Stoeckinger, Alan Rankin
Up (2009): Michael Silvers, Tom Myers

There's a chance that Avatar's visual splendour will bleed into the other categories, allowing it to pick up some of the audio awards along the way, but I think this could be the first win for The Hurt Locker, since the sound of the film is hugely important in creating its unbearably tense atmosphere.


Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, Andy Nelson, Tony Johnson
The Hurt Locker (2008): Paul N.J. Ottosson, Ray Beckett
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Michael Minkler, Tony Lamberti, Mark Ulano
Star Trek (2009): Anna Behlmer, Andy Nelson, Peter J. Devlin
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (2009): Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Geoffrey Patterson

Seriously? Transformers gets a nomination? Well, it's certainly the loudest of the nominees, which might count for something, but I think this will be another win for The Hurt Locker, since I've never really understood what the difference is between Sound 'Editing' and Sound 'Mixing', so they tend to go hand in hand.


Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:

Crazy Heart (2009): T-Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham("The Weary Kind")
Faubourg 36 (2008): Reinhardt Wagner, Frank Thomas("Loin de Paname")
Nine (2009): Maury Yeston("Take It All")
The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Almost There")
The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Down in New Orleans")

I was originally going to give this one to Crazy Heart based purely on the fact that having multiple nominations for songs, as The Princess and The Frog does here, tends to lead to a splitting of the vote, allowing for songs from smaller films to win. The best recent example of this being when 'Falling Slowly' from Once managed to win against three songs from Enchanted. For that reason, and because it's a lovely song, I'm plucking for 'The Weary Kind.'


Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): James Horner
Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Alexandre Desplat
The Hurt Locker (2008): Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders
Sherlock Holmes (2009): Hans Zimmer
Up (2009): Michael Giacchino

I'm going to throw my support being Michael Giacchino's beautiful score for Up. Whilst James Horner's score for Avatar is effective, it just isn't as inventive or haunting as Giacchino's repeated motifs and subtle tones in Up.


Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:

Il divo (2008): Aldo Signoretti, Vittorio Sodano
Star Trek (2009): Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow
The Young Victoria (2009): John Henry Gordon, Jenny Shircore

I'm so surprised to see Paolo Sorrentino's Il Divo nominated that I'm going to say it'll win. It seems like one of those La vie en rose nominations that winds up winning because, despite its showier competition, it's just so much better.


Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:

Bright Star (2009): Janet Patterson
Coco avant Chanel (2009): Catherine Leterrier
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): Monique Prudhomme
Nine (2009): Colleen Atwood
The Young Victoria (2009): Sandy Powell

Coco avant Chanel will win for the chic factor, if nothing else.


Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg, Kim Sinclair
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): David Warren, Anastasia Masaro, Caroline Smith
Nine (2009): John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Sherlock Holmes (2009): Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
The Young Victoria (2009): Patrice Vermette, Maggie Gray

Wow, what a hodge-podge of nominees. This feels like an Avatar win, to me; creating an entire world just seems more impressive that getting period trappings just right.


Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Stephen E. Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron
District 9 (2009): Julian Clarke
The Hurt Locker (2008): Bob Murawski, Chris Innis
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Sally Menke
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Joe Klotz

The battle between Avatar and The Hurt Locker for awards supremacy rages on and The Hurt Locker will win this bout for its visceral action sequences and palpable tension.


Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Mauro Fiore
Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009): Christian Berger
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009): Bruno Delbonnel
The Hurt Locker (2008): Barry Ackroyd
Inglourious Basterds (2009): Robert Richardson

I'm quite delighted to see Harry Potter nominated here. I thought it was one of the most visually arresting films of last year and made for an uncommonly beautiful blockbuster, particularly one that is the sixth in a series. It won't win, but it was nice all the same. Neither will Das weisse Band or Inglourious Basterds, despite both being hugely accomplished pieces of work. It's Team Bigelow and Team Cameron again and, this time, it'll be Avatar that takes the glory.


Right, that's the end of Part One. I shall return tomorrow with my thoughts on the Major Awards.

Stay Tuned; Same Mighty Fine Time, Same Mighty Fine Channel.